Retirement For Life

2025 Predictions - Ep 26

• Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP® • Season 2 • Episode 26

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Prepare for an exciting yet cautious 2025 with insights on market predictions, political influences, and critical strategies for retirees. Focusing on income security, taxes, and estate planning can help ensure a comfortable retirement amid uncertainty.

• Importance of predicting market trends 
• Political influences on market conditions 
• Trusting financial advisors for effective planning 
• Value of “mailbox money” for income stability 
• Tax strategies including Roth conversions to safeguard assets 
• Necessity of proper estate planning for lasting impact 
• Overall emphasis on proactive planning for retirees

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Intro:

Retirement for Life, your passport to a comfortable and confident retirement. The podcast that's equal parts education and entertainment, where we break down the retirement maze with a dash of fun and a heap of wisdom from your host, Christian Sear, CPA, the passionate retirement specialist and president of Sear Financial Wealth Advisors, the independent registered investment advisor specializing in the AIM retirement system.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Hi everybody, Welcome back to the Retirement for Life podcast. We are here today with Emma and this is the first episode of 2025. Welcome, Emma. How are you?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Thanks, doing good. How are you?

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

We're going to do something fun today. This is going to be a fun topic because so many people are asking us what is going to happen in 2025. What's the market going to do? And we're going to go through, I think, a lot of fun and interesting points, because this can be really boring, but we're going to make it interesting. But really I want to tell my retirees the top three things like priority lists that they should have this year Before I get started with that. I mean, we're going to obviously have to talk about Donald Trump today, right? Yeah.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

I mean, everyone's asking me is Donald Trump going to do this, is he going to do that? We'll talk about that. There's actually some interesting things. I've been listening a lot to this this Doge, you know.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Yeah, yeah. Department of.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Governmental efficiency. I've become a fan of Elon Musk.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

He's a bit much for me, but I yeah, I think he could do good things.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Born in South Africa, he has tried and failed at more things than most people even try, that's right yeah, and I saw yesterday they said do not bet against Elon Musk.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Yeah, he puts his mind to it, he can probably accomplish it.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Well, we'll talk about that more later. You know Trump's tariffs. We got to talk about that. That's going to impact my retirees and I'm concerned about it. Now, if you're listening out there, I want to tell you that I hope you've watched some of our shows this year. You've taken in some of our videos, you've listened to some of our podcasts and, if you have, I hope that you have already elevated your heart rate 20 minutes today.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Yeah, we got the New Year's resolutions kicking in right now.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Everybody's got the New Year's. I have a New Year's resolution. Well, it's not a resolution, I don't want to say that, it's just. You know, I was shooting a video the other day and we had to stop. Brooke, don't laugh, she's back there smiling. So we're shooting a video. I'm in my office chair now imagine the office chair that has, like the hydraulics. Yeah, and it's really cool because I'm a bigger guy and I can elevate my chair up to be right in line with the camera and literally in the middle of the video.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Brooke what happened went down yikes I didn't.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

I mean, it's not like I fell it's just no just my, my chair dropped by like six inches in the middle of the chute.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

No good.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

And it's because maybe just maybe I'm a little, I could lose a few pounds, and so I had to take a screw. I had to drill into my hydraulic chair. And as you're drilling into a hydraulic chair I don't know if you ever thought about this there's pressure in there. It's meant to keep a heavy man from falling, but it apparently wasn't doing its job. So I drilled into the hydraulic chair. All the hydraulic fluid and gas comes out all over my face and I put a huge screw into my chair. Well, that led me to think. You know, I'm not going to make a New Year's resolution, but I'm going to do it. But here's the thing. So I joined this diet program and for those of you who are working with the financial advisor, I think you might be able to relate to this. You know, this is not the first plan I have started.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Okay, yeah, oh yeah, I've seen them.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Yeah, You've seen them over the years. So the thing is is that I feel like I need to listen more to the people who are telling me what to do.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

I have to trust them. I have to eat what they tell me to eat. I have to do the exercises they tell me to do, and too often I've just kind of given up on that. And it's a lot. Like you know, we've had some clients over the years that have failed. Their retirement has failed and ultimately it's because they didn't do the things that we told them to do. So if you have a financial advisor out there, please listen to what they tell you to do, okay, anyway, one minute of good news, brooke. What happened to the AIM retirement system this week?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Wow, we blew up. We're going viral.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

No.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Oh.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

What happened to the trademark?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Oh yeah, it passed. We're official, very official, yep.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Our trademark is actually officially trademarked. You know, the government can't run anything. When did we apply for a trademark for AIM Retirement System?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

I think that was last November actually.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

So, anyway, it took a year, but we finally got it. The AIM Retirement System is now a trademark. So let's get on to the point of this podcast. The market has been going up, up and the market has been going up, and we're going to talk about that. I'm the old man. I'm concerned. You're the bright, smart, young person and you have great perspective on this. What are the experts telling us about the market for 2025? What's it going to do?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Yeah, there's a lot of chatter about the market in 2025. Predictions here, there and everywhere, but really what the experts are saying is that it's going to be a pretty good year. You know, we have Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan both saying the market's going up 10%. The S&P is going up to 6,500. Tom Lee, one of your favorites, says it's going up to 7,000. Tom Lee, one of your favorites, says it's going up to 7,000, but ending the year right around that 10%, just like the other experts are saying.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

What do you say? Okay, I love Tom Lee. For those of you who don't know Tom Lee, I was introduced to Tom Lee not personally, but as a person a long time ago. He worked for JP Morgan and he was their chief economist and market strategist and he's now on his own and he has a site that you have to pay a lot of money for called Fundstrat, and I've been a member of Fundstrat. He's just fantastic. He admits when he's wrong, but the great thing about Tom is that he's usually right. Yep.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

And he's not afraid to say what he thinks. He's kind of like me in that regard, but he has this really interesting take on 2025, you guys, he says that with all the things that are going on, with Trump coming on board, there's going to be a lot of excitement in 2025. And we're all going to get excited. But he says hold the phone. And we're all going to get excited but he says hold the phone. The market's going to go up in the first half of the year, but it's actually going to maybe have some volatility in the second half of the year. And I think that's interesting. But yeah, okay, give it to me straight, emma. All the experts don't know what they're talking about. They all say the same thing. It's like it's good to be wrong if everybody's wrong. They're all saying 10%. Here's my take on it as an old man. The market for the last two years has literally skyrocketed. Can it keep going? What do you think?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

That's true. I mean, I've read something about bull markets that reach their two-year birthday and a lot of people like you say, oh, it's been two years, we're bound to have a downturn next year.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Oh, it's bound to happen.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

But really there's been quite a few bull markets in the last. It's been over the last hundred years, bull markets that make it to their second birthday, actually continue going and even make it to five years or more. Okay.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

But think about where we've been in the last six years. Okay, in 2019, we had this awesome market Market went up 30%. In 2020, we had COVID. I remember COVID. The market went down 30% in 30 days, but by the end of the year, it's like, as far as the stock market knew, nothing happened. Not a damn thing happened. It went up 18%. 2020 to 21,. Excuse me, 2021, we had massive government spending. The market went up 28% again. So, right there you have up 30%, up 18%, up 28%. Now, 22 is a bad year. Okay, ukraine was invaded and I've made videos on this. The government screwed up how to handle this, but we had massive inflation, so we had a bad year in 22. It was actually the worst year for retail investors. But 23, awesome. And then what are we going to have this year? How much is the market going to go up this year?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

It's been a great year so far and if things continue on this path around close to 30%.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

But if you look at this last six-year run we've had, the one I'm talking about I looked at yesterday and I'm going back to 1928. Okay, this is one of the best six-year runs we have ever had, okay, and so what usually happens after an amazing six-year run is this the following year. It typically underperforms, okay. I mean, if you looked at a picture of the stock market over the last six years, it looks like the great American eagle at six flags. Yeah, when you're going up that roller coaster right before you're about to fall, right, okay. But here's the thing, and to your point it could go back up, because I looked, this has happened this good a six-year run, this good 10 times. And how many times has the market gone down the seventh year or the following year?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

So about four times it's gone down.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Yeah.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

But four times it's gone up too, with you know the next year being just as good, if not better, and then keep going year after year after that.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

So Okay, so here's the bottom line. My perspective is I, just my retirees, my clients, have just made a lot of money and I want to protect what they have, but we don't want to miss the boat either. 2025 could be an awesome year. Donald Trump's going crazy. Let's talk about the Trump trade. So you're positive, I'm negative. What do you think about Trump and the stock market?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Well, we've got Trump coming in. What he's campaigned on is lowering taxes income taxes, keeping those low for consumers, and then second, lowering regulations which-.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Yeah, I love that.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Reducing spending of the government. However, he's also implemented or he says he's going to implement tariffs and deportation which Go ahead tariffs and deportation which Go ahead. You know tariffs. I think every economist would tell you that that's not ideal for the economy. Those prices are going to be passed on to the consumer. But something else that's important for retirees is he did mention that he wants to cut taxes on Social Security. How's?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

that going to happen, so actually he would just need a simple majority to pass the Social Security, just to have no taxes on Social Security. How's that going to happen? So actually, he would just need a simple majority to pass the Social Security, just to have no taxes on Social Security. Okay, will he actually do that? I don't know. Maybe not, but it is possible.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

So here's the thing I have said that 2025, my main body of work is going to be our federal debt. I've been studying it, I've been studying it. I've been studying it. It is seriously a concern. The video right now that's getting 30,000, 40,000 views is about the whole point that taxes are going to go up because it's unsustainable where our country is going. I'm not going to get into that. What I will say is that we were talking about Elon Musk earlier, vivek Ramaswamy they want to cut spending. That's awesome.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

If you look, the last time debt the first time in America debt ever as a percent of GDP ever was over 100% was in the 50s. We had just come off of an awful war, world War II and the way we won the war, the way we were victorious, was because we spent a lot of money. And if you look at the level of debt in the 50s, it went down for the next 20 years. It actually in 1974, the year after I was born For the next 20 years, it actually in 1974, the year after I was born we were at 24% debt to GDP. Yeah, so we went as a country. We did it. We went from 100% completely in debt, never even thought about it before all the way down to 24%, Studied this a lot. You know how we got out of that debt, what we did as a country. If you look on the top level, they say, oh, the economy soared because we blew up the world. No, the experts are saying that the way we got out of our debt troubles in the past was we ran a surplus. Last year we ran a $1.8 trillion deficit for one year. As much as I love Elon Musk, I hope they can cut even half of that deficit out. I'm really concerned about it.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

What Trump wants to do is basically, what does he say? Make America great again, or whatever. I'm not political here, I'm just saying here's his ideas. He's like okay, the GDP has been going down and down and down and down this country. Right now, if you look at the entire world, america represents 26% of the gross domestic product. Well, guess where we were back in 1963? It's right there 38%. So literally for the last 60 years, america, while it's great, is becoming less great.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

So what he says is let's increase this GDP. So he's got these ideas. He's got these taxes which are going to give us more jobs. They're going to give us higher wages. At least that's what the tax foundation says, which is the non-for-profit organization which basically is saying look, this Trump plan isn't going to work, except for the tariffs that's going to go backwards. Here's the thing that people who are retired need to know about this His tax plan is not going to hurt you too much. If he does find a way to not tax Social Security, it's going to make my retirees very happy, Could you imagine? Oh gosh, yeah.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

The important thing to keep in mind, too, is Trump aside, you know, we were investing for the long term. There's a lot of scary things that people ask us that's going to happen over the next four years, but ultimately, we were focused on the longterm. So, regardless of what happens, we're planning for any scenario.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

All right, so we're keeping score here. Uh, and the majority that I've read say that the Trump trade, if you will, is a positive. So the current score is Emma one, chris zero. But it's my turn.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Okay, all right.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

The last 16 years have been too good to be true. Literally, 14 of the last 16 years has seen the stock market go up. That does not happen. Okay, there's been like a couple of scary times. I remember 2018, right before, like the Superbowl was happening in December of 18, the market went down and it was like Ooh. It lasted literally like 45 days yeah.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

I remember in 2020, I said it earlier COVID 30% downturn. In 30 days it was literally back up. And 2022 is bad. But literally this 16-year period has been way, way too good, and so people like you are going to say it's different this time. But I'm telling you that, if nothing else, this is one thing I want to tell my retirees you that, if nothing else, this is one thing I want to tell my retirees. Next year or this year, 2025, you will see your account go up and down more. There's going to be more volatility and that's I'm going to predict that. That's my number one prediction for 2025. You're going to see your accounts bounce up and down a lot. So, if you're the type of person that checks their account every day, get ready for a tough year.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Better just check it once a quarter and be done with it, and I'm going to score one for me. Can I get that?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Okay.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Emma, we've been up. 14 out of the last 16 years we've been up.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Yeah, I will admit volatility is going to be high. There's so many unknowns, so that could lead to some volatility.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Fine, one to one. Now can I go again?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Sure.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Have you heard that the market's overvalued?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

I've heard that, yes, it's overvalued, it's way overvalued.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

I mean we are just at the highest of valuations. What did I say here? The price earnings multiple of the S&P 500 has increased 25% in the last two years. Today's PE multiple look at that it's basically at 22. That is in the 93rd historical percentile. We're overvalued.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Well, right, yeah, okay, so you say that. But think of the makeup of the market. You know, 30 years ago tech only made up about 10% of the S&P 500. Today we're closer to 45%. So just you know, as a general rule, the PE ratio of tech stocks are extremely high compared to other stocks.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

So what are we saying? I'm saying that the whole adage of buy low and sell high, right now we're high, but you're saying it's not as high as we think because times have changed.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

There's so much growth potential with tech stocks. Young people are crazy because the PE ratios being high, it's not scary to me. I think, there's so much potential.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Like are you one of these AI? Are you saying artificial intelligence is part of this? I kind of believe that Is like artificial intelligence, the next internet.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

I mean think about how companies grow now versus how they grew before the internet started. It's amazing the things that companies can do, and I don't think that the stock prices should scare us as much as they scare you. Okay, all right. I think that's a point for me.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Okay, fine, fine. I think that's a point for me. Okay, fine, fine, but I'm going to go back to protect what they have. We have all these strategies that guarantee their income, that are really about giving them a solid, comfortable retirement. So, with the other money that we have, let's not be sitting on the sidelines if the market goes up another 25%.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Exactly. We're doing other things to diversify their money, so there's no reason to be scared and pull out of the market.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Okay, but I do want to go back to what I said. So, even if that is the case, I'm just telling my retirees that 2025, they will see more volatility in their accounts. Every study shows it. So I do have to give you one thing I've been a student of investments for a long time. I once built a strategy called the Dynamax, and it was built on a factor called momentum. And here's the thing I want to tell you about momentum. The Chicago Bears my favorite football team, were on a roll this year. Rookie quarterback. We were looking so good. We were literally three seconds away from being five and two on the way to maybe not the Super Bowl. In one fell swoop, the Chicago Bears lost on a Hail Mary last minute. Just truly unbelievable play. I was so upset. But here's the deal Momentum is a real thing.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

They, since that happened, have lost 11 games straight. That is momentum. You get on a blackjack table. What do they say about a blackjack table? Do you know what they say about which blackjack table you're supposed to be on? The one? That's hot.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Yeah.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

The one it's a momentum, is a real thing, okay, and I have to give you I'm going to give you another point, because if we've been going this good, the momentum factor, which is strong, says you need to stay there, right?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Because the last two years. What was that article you sent me the other day, if the market's been up two years in a row? Yeah, it was from the Carson Group, so it was basically looking at all the bull markets that have been up two years and showing that they do continue on a lot of the times for another two, three years or even more.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Okay. So another point for Emma on the momentum side. I've got one for you. Okay.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

What do you say to this? There are seven stocks out there, magnificent seven. I'm going to try and do them without looking at the screen Apple, amazon, microsoft, nvidia, tesla, sorry, Google and Meta Yep. Those seven stocks are really the only seven stocks we should be investing. Over the last five years, those seven stocks have been up 20%. Without those seven stocks, we're not even talking, we're not even having this conversation. We're like it's just been an average five years. Do you feel uncomfortable that there's seven stocks that are truly driving the entire market?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

I mean, those are the seven companies. You know they're the largest, they account for most of the growth, they're leading the charge on AI and tech and all of the things of that nature.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Are these what I'm just going to call them young people stocks, then? Okay, yeah, I mean we own them, though. I mean I got to say we have Apple, we have Amazon, we have Google we have Microsoft, we have Nvidia. We don't invest in Facebook meta. Right now we don't invest. Are we in Tesla right?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

now, we just added it. I'm pretty sure, yep.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Okay. So here's the thing I want to say about them. Here's what my retirees need to know. Let me say it in a way that they can understand. Guys, these seven stocks have gone up 146% in the last five years. Okay, in the S&P 500, there are 500 stocks. The remaining 493 stocks in the S&P 500 have gone up just 33% 146% for those seven stocks. And all the rest of the world's going up not even close. So, brooke, can I get a point for that?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Yeah, sure, okay, thanks, we'll give it to you.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Thanks, all right, one more thing that Emma wanted to say, which she's probably right about and she's probably going to get a point for this, but go ahead.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

So interest rates are going down. They may not be going down as quick as we thought a year ago, but they're going down. The Fed is cutting rates slowly but surely. And what happens when you cut rates? I mean companies can borrow at cheaper rates, they grow faster. And not only that, bonds are also very well aligned. So you can earn over 5% on bonds right now, and with rates going down, bond prices are going up. So there's just too many good things that interest rates going down helps us out quite a bit.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

So, in summary, retirees most likely. The economists are saying it's going to be a good year. The experts are saying the market's going to go up 10%. You've got more things going our way than going against us and, even though I'm probably a little bit nervous, if we've put our clients in the right position, I've always said they shouldn't really care if the market goes up or down because over the long term it's going to go up.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Yep, which really brings me to the most important point about this podcast the in-retirement system. I've worked personally very, very hard on this system over the years and the main goal is to maximize retirement success. Retirement success and primarily, the way we're doing that, is putting our clients in a position, hopefully, that, regardless of what happens to the market, you're going to be okay. Okay, and there's a lot of ways we're doing this and a lot of studies we've done and a lot of ways to really put people in a position where, if the market does go down next year and I am right it shouldn't really matter. And so here's what you should be focusing on. These are, I think, the top three things I really sat back and thought about. If I'm talking to a retired person or a person who's preparing for retirement, what are the top three things they should be doing? Secure income what do you see in a financial plan when income stability is high? What do you see?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

It makes I mean it makes the entire financial plan like twice as good, because there's no reliability on the market.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Okay, I'm a CPA. I'm a certified financial planner. You are a CFA. We have a team full of retirement specialists in the office. I mean, how many financial plans are you going to do in the next two weeks?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Probably 10, I would say new ones.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

So you're basically doing one financial plan a day.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Right.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Our team is doing at least one new financial plan a day. I think that's a good estimate. We are schooled, we are seasoned and I'm telling you, when you say to a person you are going to get this income on this day, no matter what, and if you die, your surviving spouse is going to continue to get this payment.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Yeah, they love that.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Not only do they love it, it makes their retirement plan look amazing. I have been getting a lot of comments about that on some of my YouTube videos. They say why do you call it mailbox money? And here's the problem with being on YouTube.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

They say why do you call it mailbox money? And you know, I just here's the problem with being on YouTube. They say don't spend too much time on your videos, don't make them 15 minutes, make them 10 minutes. Okay, so make it simple for people to understand. So I say mailbox money. So I'm not getting into the details of what it is, because it's simple, it's just mailbox money.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

It shows them your mailbox once a month and then somebody makes a comment the other day and they go why didn't you, why don't you explain what that is? Are you trying to hide something from us? Is it annuity? No, here's what it is. It's a fixed annuity that at some point it marinates for years five to seven years and then, once it's time usually the same time you start social security you turn on mailbox money, which is a fixed annuity that has a guaranteed income rider on it. You get multiple checks. Now You're getting two social security checks and on top of this you're getting this nice mailbox money check. And that's what it is and that's why I call it mailbox money, because it shows up in your mailbox once a month. I think here's a question for you. This is priority number one for retirees? What percent of new clients come into the AIM retirement system already prepared with mailbox?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

I would say less than 10% have even an annuity at all and 0% of them have an income rider.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

So priority one of three for retires this year Learn about mailbox money. Watch all the videos. There's probably 15 videos on mailbox money on our channel on rflshowcom. It's on YouTube. We have so many videos about them. Educate yourself about mailbox money, because we are doing a show about what's going to happen to the stock market in 2025. You think it's going to be good. I'm scared. Okay, whoever's right. The point is, the people with mailbox money don't care. Okay, that's priority number one for retires and you can get this before you're retired. That's the thing you can get mailbox money lined up. If you're 60 years old, 61 years old, 62 years old maybe you're not retired yet you can still protect your 401k. It's just that should be a number one thing, because less than 90% you said 10% that's being very generous.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Well, I said 0% of the income. Writer. Okay, so yeah, no one yeah.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

All right, which brings me to point number two. I said old man, studying what's his main body of work going to be in 2025 is going to be about this. Can I swear? Shitty government who's raising debts in a fraudulent way. It's absolutely fraudulent, and I am sitting here as an older guy getting older every day, thinking that the world is coming to an end because the government is just spending money. The video we just made is about taxes are going to go up.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

I said earlier, the way we fix this problem, this debt problem, is to reduce our spending, but I have also said that, as much as I love Elon Musk and as much as I think Vivek Ramaswamy wants to cut $2 trillion out of the budget, they're not going to do it. This is a simple math problem. Everybody in the world can try their best to reduce spending. It's not going to happen the way it needs to happen. Therefore, the only other way to fix this problem. This is a problem we've never had in the United States of America before. We've never had debt this high as a percent of GDP. Personally, we have 20 years left. That's what they're saying. As a country, we have 20 years left. That means you're going to have a kid who's not even in high school yet, and the US dollar is going to be worthless and the country that you live in is going to be.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

It's a problem.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Taxes are going to go up. The number two priority for retirees is taxes. When I make videos about paying taxes now, what am I basically talking about?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Roth conversions are, for sure, number one.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

My God.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Paying the taxes now, before the taxes go up in the future and you're faced with RMDs.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

I just don't understand why the entire world doesn't see it like I do, because the most beautiful picture I've seen in retirement is a client who does the first two things has mailbox money that kicks in at Social Security, and because they follow priority number two, which is advanced tax planning. Be smart paying your taxes now and not later. And when they turn 73 or they turn 74, not only do they have guaranteed income for the rest of their life, they will not be paying, they'll be paying little or no taxes going forward. Finally, we have a phone call here in 40 minutes. And who's that phone call with?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Estate planning. I mean this is huge. We have so many clients come in asking you know what do we do with our estate? We want to pay as little tax as possible and on top of that, it's very important that people have their wills in place and have trust. If necessary, we help clients with that all the time.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

I couldn't agree more. Estate planning is going to be key for retirees in 2025. Do you know? You can get most people can get their entire estate plan done for like less than $3,000 or right around there Trusts, wills, power of attorneys, and when you're dead you're gone. You can't sign the piece of paper that says so-and-so gets my stuff, and if you leave it to a judge to do it, estate planning is definitely number three. So if you're retiring this year, the market's going to go up probably. Maybe it won't go up as much as possible or as much as it has in the past. That looks to be our consensus view. It will be a little bit more volatile, however, and regardless of what the market does, you need to put yourself in a position to be ready for retirement which means you have picked the right advisor to work with.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Whoever that is there's thousands of them out there. Pick a good one. You have got your guaranteed income situation ready to go. No problem, it's in there. You have tackled the tax conversation. You have a plan to pay your taxes now at ultra low tax rates, with an advisor who employs CPAs because the two go hand in hand and you have your estate plan ready. That's the top three priorities for 2025. What do you feel about that?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

I mean, yeah, I 100% agree. But let's just get back to reality here. What's the most important thing about retiring? I mean, you want to still enjoy your life. Ignore what the markets are doing, you know, don't worry yourself, have a long-term view.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

I mean, the whole reason I started this podcast 11 and a half months ago is because I'm sappy. I cry at Hallmark commercials. And 2023 was this weird year for me. I've gone through it before. And 2024, I would say at least 25% of the videos I have done in 2024 were about the real important stuff health and happiness for my retirees, doing the things that you love, making sure that you have purpose in your life, making sure that you're getting 20 minutes of heartbeat activity besides sitting on the couch yeah, that's what it's all about. So happy new year to you, Emma. Yeah, that's what it's all about. So happy new year to you, Emma. Yeah, you too. We'll see you guys in about two weeks for the next episode, and I think that's all we got today.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

That's a wrap.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

That's a wrap Take care.

Outro:

Investment advisory services provided by Sear Financial Inc. Sec registered investment advisor. All content on this podcast is for information purposes only and should not be considered investment, legal or tax advice. Material presented is believed to be from reliable sources and no representations are made by our firm as to another party's informational accuracy or completeness.

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Christian J. Cyr, CPA, CFP®

Host
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Andrea Brannon

Co-host
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Emma Bean, CFA

Co-host